Rally Has Further to Run But Buyers Beware on Brazil, Warns Aviva 3
RECORD HIGHS road sign against clear blue sky

It’s too good to last, the Wall Street Journal declared last week, echoing warnings of false hope from the Financial Times.

The best equity rally for emerging and frontier markets since the collapse of Lehman Brothers and soaring developing-nation bonds and currencies have spawned plenty of Calamity Janes.

Aaron Grehan isn’t among them. He helps manage $4.5 billion of emerging-market debt for Aviva Investors in funds that have beaten 94% of their peers in the past year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The bond market has only just begun to make up for the losses of 2015, and has more to recoup yet, Grehan tells Frontera News Managing Editor Gavin Serkin on this week’s Emerging Opportunities show on Share Radio. Podcast mins 02:00

But not all boats rising on this tide will stay afloat. There are debt-heavy companies at risk of sinking, he cautions, and certainly Brazil appears too buoyant given its widening corruption scandal. Podcast mins 03:49

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Another country mired in political mudslinging this past week is Bangladesh, where the theft of $81 million from the central bank’s deposit with the New York Fed caused the ouster of its governor amid a baying for blood from the Finance Minister. Exotix Partners’ analyst in Dhaka, Asif Khan, assesses the new landscape for investors in one of the frontier world’s few anchors of stability. Podcast mins 14:00

Listen to the podcast here:

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