With the first round results of the French (EWQ) presidential elections now out, En Marche candidate Emmanuel Macron has taken the lead with 23.86% of the 97% votes counted on April 23, seconded by Marine Le Pen of the National Front with 21.43% votes. Republican Francois Fillon, Jean-Luc Melenchon of the La France Insoumise, and Socialist Benoit Hamon secured 19.94%, 19.62%, and 6.35% of votes, respectively.
Putin-Critic Macron vs Pro-Russia Le Pen
Accordingly, Macron and Le Pen are through to the second round to be held on May 7. What makes it interesting is that the two candidates differ markedly on their visions for France, as well as their stance on Russia (RSX) (RUSL) (ERUS) (RSXJ), Europe (VGK) (FEZ), and immigration, among others.
Subject
Emmanuel Macron
Marine Le Pen
Europe
Pro – European Union
calls for closer integration between countries
Wants France to exit the EU
envisages a Frexit (France exiting EU)
Russia
Putin-critic
intends to retain pressure on Russia
Pro-Russia
Advocates closer ties with Russia
criticized EU sanctions on Russia
Immigration
Against closing borders
stricter controls on immigration
To limit immigration
to withdraw from the Schengen
Security
Believes it is “not a moment to doubt the EU”
emphasizes the need to protect French citizens with solidarity with the EU
Criticizes NATO
wants to take France out of its integrated military command
Economy
to cut corporate tax rates gradually to 25% from 33% at present
cut housing tax
reform wealth tax
big economic stimulus to radically transform the French economy
cut income taxes for the poorest workers
simplify tax rules and fight tax evasion
envisages an independent France and
a new, lower-value currency, the “nouveau franc”
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A face-off between these candidates on May 7th, therefore, implies Russian equity either soars or slumps. While a Le Pen victory should bode well for Russian markets, a Macron victory could ring warning bells for the economy — especially its oil and gas industry — as discussed next.
