What’s the biggest global investment risk?
Answer: The unknown.
It’s the unpredictable, the freak event – the black swan.
Yet we’re not completely in the dark. There are – as the former US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld liked to point out – the unknown unknowns. And then there are the known unknowns.
One unknown Rumsfeld knew well: North Korea’s nuclear intent.
To use another favorite term of his era – the “axis of evil” – that lexicon is coming back with a bite.
North Korea, boasted Supreme Leader Kim Jong-Un this month, “can now mount an even more powerful nuclear warhead on a new intercontinental ballistic rocket, and put the den of evil in the United States, and all over the world, within our strike range.”
Just lately, Rumsfeld’s successors in the Defense Department have acknowledged that North Korea is demonstrating capabilities applicable to creating a long-range missile – after detonating four nuclear bombs and sending a satellite into orbit this year.
A second known unknown is Islamic State’s next strike. From Iraq, Libya and Syria, the terror network has been spreading to the West and the East – into Muslim countries across South and Southeast Asia.
A third is Vladimir Putin’s game plan. Along with military conflicts – from Georgia to Ukraine and Syria – Moscow has also been building geopolitical influence through less public channels. An example is in Mongolia, where Russia has taken control of uranium mines once owned by Western investors, as revealed on Frontera News by Phill Hynes of ISS Risk.
Hynes delves into these three topics and more on this week’s Emerging Opportunities show with Frontera Managing Editor Gavin Serkin. Catch the podcast on Monday, April 18, from 3pm in New York or 8pm in London here