Mexico is the 15th largest country by GDP and the 18th largest country by exports in the world. IMF forecasts a moderate real GDP growth of 3.8%, which is above developed economies.
Since 1990 foreign direct investments net inflow has increased significantly, underlying the interest of investors in the country.
Economic outlook
IMF forecasts a stable GDP growth rate and inflation, and falling unemployment for the next two years.
- Mexican debt consists of 46.5% of the GDP, which is one of the lowest compared to China, Brazil, India, South Korea, the Philippines, Indonesia and South Africa.
- Mexico has a current account deficit, meaning that Mexico imports more than exports. Exports contribute 35.34% to the growth GDP, and with current account deficit, Mexico depends on foreign direct investments to support the growth of the economy and stability of the national currency.
- Since 2015 investors have started withdrawing their investments from Mexico, which has led to the depreciation of the peso from 14.83 to 20.57 per dollar.
- For the last year, foreign direct investments from the USA have decreased from 5 bn to 2.29 bn.
What caused investors to withdraw their investments?
The USA is the primary trading partner for Mexico by the surplus, meaning that Mexico exports more than imports.
Mexico is the second-largest trading partner of the USA by the deficit, meaning that the USA imports more than exports.
Therefore, the economy of the USA is highly dependent on the Mexican exports and economy of the Mexico is highly reliant on USA imports.
In 1994 the USA, Canada, and Mexico signed a free trade agreement, “NAFTA,” that eliminated most of the tariffs and liberated the trade between the countries. The hope of the accord was to boost economic development in Mexico and would subsequently discourage further illegal immigration to the USA, and decrease the costs and increase competitiveness for the USA and Canadian companies in the world market.
The studies of the NAFTA agreement show that it had a positive effect on the GDP growth of both Mexico and the USA: GDP of the USA grew by 50% and GDP of the Mexico by 46%.
The election of Donald Trump was a rude awaking for the investors:
Donald Trump believes that NAFTA is the “worst trade deal ever,” and plans to cancel the deal and impose the tariffs. The motivation for the decision is due to the adverse impact on the USA labor market caused by the migration of manufacturing to Mexico.
Studies of the “NAFTA” agreement have shown that the deal has had a positive impact on the job market of the USA: the employment rate has increased by 24% and unemployment decreased from 7.1% to 5.1%.
The manufacturing output grew by 60% from 1993 to 2006 because of the shifted assembly lines to Mexico that significantly reduced cost.
American consumers benefit from lower prices on food and goods imported from Mexico due to the lower labor costs and will not be happy with the price increase brought by the tariffs. American corporations will have to deal with this same issue, as they will have to find new production centers with higher costs.
The cancellation of the “NAFTA” agreement will have adverse effects on both countries.The effect on Mexican economy will be significantly higher due to the lower size of the economy.
Should investors worry and withdraw their investments?
Donald Trump wants to impose 35% tariffs of the Mexican exports that will lead to an economic slowdown. With imposed tariffs, Mexico will have a hard time finding the substitution markets for the USA market; it is reasonable that investors would be concerned about these trade restrictions.
On the other hand, it’s fair to assume that markets have overreacted and priced their fear too high in the equity and currency, creating an opportunity to explore market inefficiency.
A perfect opportunity for the contrarian investor.
Donald Trump was very tough on external and internal policy before the election. Nevertheless, after the election, he has “softened” and changed his views.
For example, before the election, he promised to build a 2,000-mile wall and deport around 11mm illegal immigrants. After the election, the wall is expected to be only 200 miles, and only 2-3 million criminal illegal immigrantswill be deported.
The same story goes for the Affordable Care Act (ACA), which was deemed a “disaster” before the elections. After the election, Donald Trump told WSJthat he might consider leaving parts of the ACA.
This tendency shows that the Donald Trump before the election is not the same Donald Trump post-election.
A tough position on the cancellation of the “NAFTA” agreement can be quickly changed to some minor modifications in the deal.
In light of the revision of the NAFTA agreement, the government of Mexico has taken an active approach and built $177 bn of reserves (17% of the GDP), and IMF has upgraded a credit line up to $88bn (8% of GDP).
Moreover, the Central Bank of Mexico has increased the interest rate by 0.5% to 4.75%, which is the highest since 2009.
With these changes, the available reserves, IMF credit line, and increased interest rates will allow the government to support national currency from further devaluation.
What would be the opportunity for the contrarian investor?
The great opportunity comes from investment in iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF (TICKER: EWW).
The fund has been volatile throughout the year and has had a few massive sell-offs. After the election, the share price sharply dropped from $52.79 to $43.34 due to the unexpected Trump victory.
The fund was significantly outperforming S&P 500 Index (Ticker: SXP) in Mexican pesos; however, it was underperforming in US Dollars because of the increased volatility of the national currency caused by the upcoming election.
Even before the election, debates negatively affected the exchange rate, making the peso one of the biggest losers, which led to overheated markets and a tendency to overreact.
The election of Donald Trump has raised a panic among investors, leading to the massive sell-off of the Mexican currency and equity that has decreased performance and destroyed shareholders’ wealth.
Taking into account changes in Trump’s position after the election, it is reasonable to assume that cancellation of the NAFTA agreement is not very likely as it will negatively affect Americans.
It is fair to assume that the markets were overheated and investors overreacted by selling Mexican currency and equity, which now has created an opportunity to buy Mexican equity cheap.
I will compare iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF with SPDR S&P 500 ETF(NYSEARCA:SPY) to see how reasonable investment in Mexican equity would be compared to domestic.
I have taken 5yr average P/E, P/CF, and P/B ratios to minimize the volatile effect of the currency. Mexican equity is cheaper compared to the US, and investors pay less for each dollar of earnings, book value, and cash flow.
- Emerging market companies have tended to have lower profitability, asset turnover, and higher leverage compared to the developed markets for the last year.
- The depreciating currency has hurt the net income which translates into lower profitability.
- Developed market countries have cost-saving effective policies that stabilize profitability
- Profitability stabilization of Mexican equity will be critical to bringing ROE above the developed markets.
- Asset turnover is affected by the increased sales with no change in assets.
- The dividend yield is lower for iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF, but the payout ratio is higher than SPDR 500 ETF . The financial sector, the second largest industry concentration of the iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF, has almost the same dividend yield as SPDR 500 ETF.
- The financial sector has a higher Return on Equity due to the higher profit margins and asset turnover compared to SPDR 500 ETF. Mexican financial institutions have more debt in the capital structure than equity.
- While the percentage of the non-performing loans is higher than iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF, deposit coverage is lower. Mexican financial institutions are taking more risk than USA financial institutions, which explains the better performance.
What are the risks of an investment in Mexican equity?
- Political risk
Mexico, like other emerging markets, is subject to a high level of corruption and political risk. Nevertheless, the political risk and corruption levels are some of the lowest compared to the other emerging market countries.
- Currency risk
For the last year, the peso has significantly depreciated by 19%, which decreased the shareholder’s wealth. The depreciation wasn’t driven by the economic or political factors but the reaction to the political news.
The Mexican peso is forecasted to appreciate by 13%, which will boost the performance of the fund.
The bottom line
- Mexico is one of the largest economies in the world and is one of the most important emerging market countries.
- For the next year, Mexico’s economy is expected to have a stable growth, which is above the average growth in the developed markets.
- Despite the relatively low political risk and corruption compared to the other emerging markets, the performance of the iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF was very volatile throughout the year.
- The volatility was driven by the markets, who overreacted to the political news and priced too much fear in the Mexican equity.
- Mexican companies have a lower profit margin, caused by depreciating currency and asset turnover, which explains the lower ROE versus other developed market companies. Stabilizing profit margin should be the primary goal for the Mexican companies to bring ROE above developed markets.
- The financial sector is one of the best-performing sectors with high ROE and profit margins. Still, financial sector enterprises take an increased risk through leverage and lower deposit coverage compared to the developed market companies that showed better performance.
- Mexican equity has experienced a series of sell-offs, especially after the debates, which points out how overheated and over-reactive the markets are.
- Investment in iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF is an excellent opportunity for a contrarian investor, with a high upside potential.
Andrii Taranukha is an Asset Management Analyst at Credit Suisse.
